The beginning of 2007 finds the Palestinian people in the most perilous position of their entire history, at the mercy of an Israeli regime able to act with absolute impunity. As UN Special Rapporteur John Dugard wrote in his September 2006 report: “ It is pointless for the Special Rapporteur to recommend to the Government of Israel that it show respect for human rights and international humanitarian law.  More authoritative bodies, notably the ICJ and the Security Council, have made similar appeals with as little success as have had previous reports of the Special Rapporteur.  It also seems pointless for the Special Rapporteur to appeal to the Quartet to strive for the restoration of human rights, as neither respect for human rights nor respect for the rule of law features prominently on the agenda of this body, as reflected in its public utterances.  In these circumstances, the Special Rapporteur can only appeal to the wider international community to concern itself with the plight of the Palestinian people.”

Governments who talk of upholding democracy and human rights are actually perpetrating collective punishment on the Palestinian people. While the UN and NGOs called for $453 million of emergency humanitarian aid in November, in December the US and Canadian governments both reiterated their refusal to send aid to the Hamas government. On 26 December Israel sponsored the delivery of a huge consignment of arms (including 2000 machine guns) to President Abbas’ security forces in Gaza – a fact which could be interpreted as a deliberate fuelling of the present tensions between Fateh and Hamas and a provocation to civil war. Similarly, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has declared that she intends to ask Congress for tens of millions of dollars to “strengthen the security forces” of President Abbas.

Our own Prime Minister’s recent, predictably fruitless visit to the area epitomises everything that is wrong with Western policies vis-a-vis Israel/Palestine. He talked to Arab governments who do not recognise Israel. He talked to leaders who are dictators, ruling by repression, and he talked to the leaders of the Israeli government, who routinely ignore international law, and who have refused to implement more than sixty UN resolutions. He did not, however, talk to the democratically elected government of the Palestinian people. Instead he gave his support to President Abbas’ decision to put aside the democratic choice of the Palestinian people in order to hold early elections – in contravention of the Palestinian constitution.

Does President Abbas assume that the overthrow of Hamas and the election of a Fateh government acceptable to the ‘international community’ will benefit  the Palestinians in the long run? Arafat made concession after concession, and went so far as to recognise Israel as a Jewish state, but the Israelis refused to negotiate with him. Abbas himself was backed by Israel in the Presidential elections, only to find he too was not considered a ‘partner for peace’. Does he have any reason to believe it will be different next time round?

The temptations facing Abbas are considerable, but the exacerbation of internal strife could be utterly disastrous. Fortunately, there are clear indications that the Palestinian people themselves recognise that the internal situation is being dictated by external pressure. In a recent opinion poll (see www.fafo.no), confidence in the Hamas government having the capacity to solve the crisis alone was very low at 7%, yet this is simply a recognition of the international refusal to talk to their elected government. There is no doubt that the majority of the Palestinian people favour a National Unity Government. More than half (54%) of those asked said that they would prefer a new national unity coalition government over new elections. The suggestion of new elections received the support of one in five (21%) of those asked. The poll data provides little grounds for believing that new elections would bring change. The same balance of support was found in the poll for Fatah and Hamas as before the last elections in January 2006: 54 % for Fatah today, 46 % in December 2005, while Hamas received 32 % support today, compared with 21 % at the same time last year. In addition, almost a third of respondents indicated that they would not vote in a new election (28%). If new elections were held, and if Hamas won again, would the pro-Israel coalition of governments demand that the Palestinians keep holding elections until they make the ‘right’ choice, under threat of starvation?

One way out of the impasse would be to bring Hamas and other parties into the PLO, as the only body which represents Palestinians inside Israel, in the Occupied Territories and in the diaspora. Palestinians need the opportunity for dialogue and debate on how to achieve their rights as laid down in international law.  

President Abbas has said that he is still prepared to talk about a National Unity Government. It is to be hoped that this has positive results. The Palestinian people will only gain their just and lawful rights by working together and not succumbing to the divide and rule agenda of Israel.